April 27, 2010    view this week's photos    
 

The Economy is Recovering
By: John Galles
    
                          
UNC Charlotte Economist John Connaughton gave Charlotte Rotarians an update on the economy as we begin the second quarter of 2010. Introduced by Tod Thorne, Connaughton opened with the good news of job growth finally two years after the decline of our economy. While 152,000 jobs are not major, it is a beginning and it is expected to continue for several months. Connaughton is a professor of economics in the Belk College of Business at UNC Charlotte. He has served as director of the Economic Forecast since 1981.
 
The North Carolina economy is forecast to increase by 3.5 percent in 2010, Connaughton reported from his quarterly forecast for the state. This marks the first year of expected growth following two years of decline and job loss.
 
In 2010, Connaughton expects first quarter Gross State Product (GSP) to increase by an annualized real rate of 4.0 percent. During the second quarter, GSP should again increase by an annualized real rate of 4.0 percent. In the third quarter, GSP is expected to slip slightly and record an annualized real growth rate of 3.6 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2010, GSP is also expected to grow at an annualized real rate of 3.8 percent.
 
2010 Sector Outlook
Seven of the state's eleven economic sectors are forecast to experience output increases during 2010. The sectors with the strongest expected growth are:

  • Construction with a projected real increase of 7.2 percent;
  • Services with a projected real increase of 7.1 percent;
  • Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) with a projected real increase of 5.2 percent;
  • Government with a projected real increase of 4.8 percent;
  • Retail Trade with a projected real increase of 4.0 percent;
  • Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities and Information (TWUI) with a projected real increase of 2.2 percent; and
  • Wholesale Trade with a project real increase of 0.3 percent.
2010 Employment Outlook
For 2010, North Carolina establishments are expected to gain 36,200 net jobs. Seven of the state's ten nonagricultural sectors of the economy are expected to experience employment increases during 2010. The sectors with the strongest employment increases in 2010 are:
  • Wholesale Trade at 4.9 percent;
  • Construction at 3.4 percent; and
  • Services at 2.7 percent.
- While a modest recovery is underway, job growth is still lacking, Connaughton said. ?After two years of consistent job losses, we still haven't seen a month of job growth either nationally or in North Carolina.
- Once job growth begins, it will be very slow. It's likely to take several years for the state's economy to replace the almost 250,000 jobs lost over the last two years of recession.
 
Recovery began in late 2009
While definitive government data is still several months away, Connaughton expects the North Carolina economy to have declined by 2.8 percent during 2009. This follows the decline of 0.6 percent experienced during 2008. The North Carolina economy declined during the first three quarters of 2009. In the first quarter, GSP decreased by an annualized real growth rate of 7.6 percent. During the second quarter, GSP again declined, but only by an annualized real rate of 1.5 percent. This represents a considerably smaller decline than was reported in the Dec. 2009 forecast. In the third quarter, GSP again declined for the fifth consecutive quarter. For the fourth quarter 2009, North Carolina GSP is expected to increase for the first time as the recovery begins. GSP is expected to expand by an annualized real rate of 6.8 percent.
 
- The question now is, how strong and sustained will this recovery be? Connaughton added. ?I continue to see mixed signals concerning the strength of the recovery, particularly in the financial sector.
- We are still seeing banks holding excess reserves of more than $1 trillion. This is a tremendous amount of money that could be lent out to facilitate the recovery.
 
        
Head Table: Chipp Bailey, Jon Hannan, John Snyder, Tod Thorne, Rodney Monroe, Joe Penner;
Invocation: Bill Bartee;
Visitors & Guests: Tod Thorne; Photos: Bert Voswinkel
   

•  Mac McCarley introduced Lisa Mask as the club's newest member. Lisa provides psychotherapy, consultation, training and executive coaching. Contact Lisa at lwmask@msn.com. Welcome!
     
• Tonya and James Tolliver welcome the birth of their son, Dresden Alexander Tolliver, born April 26th. James has also announced he will be the new vice president for Big Brothers Big Sisters of Greater Charlotte effective May 3rd; good news from Jim Haney - his wrist is not broken; Lynn Wheeler has been appointed to the Zoning Board of Adjustment, WBTV's Community Advisory Committee and the CRVA's Visitor's Advisory Committee; David Erdman presented his "Picturing the Streets of Old Charlotte" program to Dilworth and Charlotte South Rotary clubs; Tim Newman recognized and thanked all that worked on the Habitat project.
        
• Alan Adler kicked off the Rotary Scholarship Golf Classic that will be held September 28 at the Golf Club at Ballantyne. A brochure with all the details can be found here. Your help is needed to push the total contributions raised for scholarships over the $500,000 mark! Contact Alan for additional information.
      
• Committee Sign ups over the website…Roster updates due by May 10th…David Norman will be set up to take pictures on May 4th and 11th: $10 for Roster only; $45 for Roster and other use (digital version, color & black and white). 11:30 to 12:30 and 1:30 to 2:00 in the State Room. Click here.
    
• Roster Updates are needed by May 10th.
    
• THE ROTARY FOUNDATION APRIL CHALLENGE: Commit to $100 sustaining donation to The Foundation and the club will contribute 200 points; Commit to becoming a member of the Paul Harris Society (contributes $1000 annually) with a $500 donation and the club will contribute 500 points. Contact John Tabor or the Rotary Office for additional details.
  Council on Legislation

Rotary International's Council on Legislation meets every three years to deliberate and act upon proposed enactments and resolutions. The Council comprises more than 500 representatives from every part of the Rotary world and the 2010 Council is meeting this week in Chicago. The complete docket of proposed legislation is 347 pages! Of interest: "approved two measures that would make it harder for a member to transfer to a new club. The first measure would preclude admission of a Rotarian who has terminated his membership in one club to another until the former club provides the new club with a certificate confirming his membership. The second measure would establish a 90-day waiting period, during which the new club could confirm that the prospective member has no outstanding dues or liabilities to the former club."

 
   
Attendance Record Wedding Anniversaries Birthdays & Birthplaces
  04/27/10 04/28/09
visitors & guests 12 20
club members 177 173
total attendance 189 193
  04 Ridgely and John Phillips
05 Kelly and Mike Crum
06 Katherine Pierce & Mike Hawley
07 Patty McKernan & Tod Thorne
08 Burgl and Ronnie Pruett
09 Mary Beth and John Snyder
09 Tonya and James Tolliver
10 Nicole and Alex Browning
10 Debbie Daniel and John Ratliff		   04 Kemp Dunaway, Charlotte, NC
07 Mary Rinehart, Charlotte, NC
08 Bob Johnston, Huntington, W VA
09 Ray Killian, Hickory, NC
09 Fernando Ycaza, Guayaquil, Ecuador
New Members:  Sam Ryburn, Mark Jones, Ed Pickett, Quincy Foil, Lisa Mask
Resignations:  Tom Stowe
Roaming Rotarians:   Tom Burgess, Vogtland SchloB Voigtsberg
     
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Go to www.ourfoundation.org to read The Rotary Foundation's newsletter
  
Rotary Club of Charlotte -- 841 Baxter Street -- Suite 118 -- Charlotte 28202